The scenery is fantastic at Britain’s most naturally beautiful racecourse, set in the heart of the Sussex countryside with a panoramic view of the entire track. Combine this with high class racing at a uniquely tricky and undulating course, and you have a compelling test for any punter, whether a professional or recreational. The 2020 meeting had an eerie feel with the whole 5 days run behind closed doors, but in 2021 the course is confident of inviting back a decent sized crowd (subject to government guidelines). Here at Beth.bet we have come up with a 5 point plan to make your Glorious Goodwood a profitable one.
1. The draw can be a huge factor both on the straight & round course
Low numbers are highly favoured on the round course, with the ability to secure a pitch against the far rail before the relatively sharp turn for home. Those drawn high either have to take a pull and drop in, relying on luck in running to get a run-through up the inner, or use up valuable energy early to get across and into a prominent pitch. Over the years, low drawn front runners have a terrific record here, often proving impossible to pass with scrimmaging in behind on the camber allowing them to escape on the lead.
2. Find the experienced jockeys who excel at Goodwood
The track is unique and very difficult to ride, with frequent trouble in running as the field concertinas on the camber and hard luck stories are common. Follow riders such as Oisin Murphy, Jim Crowley and William Buick. All have excellent records round here, with strike rates in excess of 17pc over the last 5 years.
3. Follow Mark Johnston who targets the meeting
One trainer stands out from the pack at the Sussex venue, with the Middleham powerhouse traditionally having his team at the peak of their powers in midsummer. A lot of the runners are well suited by frontrunning on fast ground, often finding more for pressure as the pack closes. Johnston has sent out 39 winners in the past five years at Goodwood (from 229 runners/17pc win rate and showing an incredible LSP at SP of over £100).
Look for sole front runners or those that like to race prominently
Try to work out how the races will be run and identify lone front runners. These will be able to dictate their own fractions and avoid any bother in behind (that is so common at this track on the camber). On fast ground especially, front runners have a terrific record at this meeting, and latching onto a tough and genuine trailblazer is a far safer strategy than chancing a hold-up performer with a turn of foot (who has form at a flatter, more conventional track). Double Trigger was the typical Goodwood horse in the past, making all the running and pulling out more year after year.
Play each-way when the terms are favourable, take advantage of offers and avoid the hyped up short priced names
During the Glorious Goodwood meeting many bookmakers will offer up 1/4 the odds a place on all races. In uncompetitive Group races with small fields (and not many realistic contenders or a long odds-on favourite) this can be terrific value for the astute player. Pick your punches, avoid the 15 runner lottery handicaps, and play when the terms are clearly in your favour. The fact that this meeting is top class and traditionally very competitive means the bookmakers come out to play and offer their prices in bigger size than is normally the case.
This meeting has a reputation as something of a punters graveyard, with horses not getting a clear run and some very messy races in bigger fields as they roll around on the camber. Avoid the shortest priced runners and the hyped up public “name” horses…search instead for horses with a proven ability at the track in the past.
Inexperienced juveniles often come here on the back of impressive debut wins on flatter/fairer tracks and are sunk without trace at very thin prices. Battle-hardened runners, perhaps with less potential but with experience of undulations at Brighton, Lingfield or Epsom are usually better value and certain of performing at their best. With racing more and more something of a “loss leader” for many firms, the value on offer can be incredible for the more discerning punter willing to shop around and play only at the top price available (using the excellent Beth.Bet algorithm to locate the value). Not only are the best prices rarely over 100pc (or anywhere close to that break even mark for the layers) when taken collectively, but there is a huge range of enhanced prices and concessions available on the day of the big race.
My exclusive Nap of the meeting for Beth.bet subscribers
‘BAATAASH’ – Charlie Hill’s star returned from a serious fracture injury and ten months off the track when suffering a costly defeat at Royal Ascot in the Kings Stand, but that run should put him spot on for a meeting where he has always excelled in his prolific career.